Will an asteroid fall to earth this fall?


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Since June of this year, the entire Internet literally boils down to the news that an asteroid of 20 to 50 meters in size can fall to Earth this fall. The fall of such a celestial body on a global scale will certainly not cause any significant problems, but at the local level, for example, if it has fallen on a city, such a stone can cause a lot of trouble. I hope everyone remembers what happened in 2013 in the Chelyabinsk region?

The asteroid, known as the 2006 QV89, was discovered 13 years ago by astronomers in the summer of 2006 as it approached Earth several million miles away. The scientists watched him for ten days and were able to calculate the trajectory. It has been found to be one of the asteroids that intersect Earth orbit from time to time. Then it turned out that he was approaching the planet again on September 9, 2019, and the probability of collision was estimated to be 1 to 7,000 according to various sources. In percentage terms, this is about 0.00014%. In other words, the probability is there, but it is very low.

However, this did not prevent the media from making fuss about the topic of an asteroid falling to the ground.

See also: Asteroids are not the only threat to Earth from space

As we have already said, small asteroids several meters in size are difficult to see from a distance, if you look at the entire sky. However, if you know in advance the trajectory of the object, you can monitor certain narrow areas of space in which it may theoretically be at the time of observation.

Asteroid 2006 QV89 motion path

The trajectory of the object 2006 QV89 is well known to scientists. At the beginning of July, they therefore calculated the areas in which QV89 could theoretically currently be located. For a more thorough search, the experts used a very powerful Telescope VLT (Very Large Telescope) located in Chile. According to the researchers, the VLT resolution would have made it possible to see even smaller objects, but they did not find any traces of asteroids in 2006 QV89. Under the explanatory assumptions, an asteroid could change the trajectory of its motion.

A snapshot of one of the display areas with the VLT. No asteroids

All of this made it possible for the scientists to rethink the future trajectory of the asteroid and deny it any chance of colliding with the Earth.

In short, you can exhale calmly. A collision of the asteroid with the earth is not expected this fall. But for fans of panic we have another message. In 2022, the asteroid 2009JF1 approaches Earth. The probability of a collision with our planet is estimated at 1 to 4464. Wait for new headlines in the media.

The most dangerous asteroid

According to the NASA, Bennu is the Earth's most dangerous asteroid. The space block has a diameter of about 550 meters. According to rough estimates, the likelihood of this asteroid colliding with Earth is 1 to 4,000. If it really falls on our planet, the energy released when the body falls on the surface is equivalent to a nuclear bomb of 2700 megatons.

See also: Unexpected discovery on the asteroid Bennu

The predicted convergence data with our planet, the adenoid Bennu – 2169 and 2199 years. Now the object will be examined with the spaceship OSIRIS-REx. He has recently reached a closest approach to the object. Further information can be found in our material.

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