Stop distorting coronavirus statistics! That is very dangerous!


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This article is a cry from the heart! My name is Renat Grishin, I am the editor-in-chief of this site. In the past few weeks we have written a variety of materials related to corona virus in our country and abroad. Every day I update a post on the pandemic that is at the top of the website. I understand that behind the soulless forms of the sick and dead are human fates, however pitiful it may sound. And when I see the number of victims growing every day, ordinary human anger analyzes me in people who either don't understand or even understand what's going on in the world today. And half the trouble when I see my son chatting to crazy mums in class that "Coronavirus is a common ARI," but when I get it from opinion leaders online, I want to raise the alarm! Don't you seriously understand what's going on? Or is it a psychological defense against yourself? Stop manipulating statistics and giving your million conclusions your wrong conclusions! Don't you understand that people can die because of you?

Playing with statistics is very dangerous!

It just so happened that today I will sort out posts on Artemy Lebedev's telegram channel. Not because I'm biased towards him, but on the contrary. But what I have seen cannot leave me indifferent. Let's take a look at some of his contributions that he dedicated to the corona virus.

What is more dangerous: acute respiratory infections, influenza or coronavirus?

For me as a person who writes daily about the victims of a pandemic, the answer is obvious. But every day on TV, on YouTube, on blogs, etc. I encounter a complete misunderstanding of what is happening. I really hope this is just a body defense response and unwillingness to correctly interpret statistics and not a malicious wish to mislead the reader. Here is Lebedev's release:

Obscenity is a Lebedev trick

Artemy provides death statistics in Italy that ranked first among COVID-19 deaths. And after reading the post, you have a clear feeling that they are either lying to us and this is a worldwide conspiracy, or … I don't know, suggest your option.

So it turns out that turning your head and especially checking the numbers is of no interest to anyone. It is necessary not to reflect, but to distribute. But what if everyone writes the same exam that is respected by many bloggers. It is not difficult.

In 2019, 647,000 people died in Italy. This is open data. We divide by 365 and we get that an average of about 1,770 people die each day. The first death from coronavirus in Italy was registered on February 22, 2020. A total of 15,887 people have died in Italy to date (April 6, 2020). This is for 45 days, i.e. about 350 people a day. You just have to understand that the increase in deaths has almost doubled every day. In March, when the death toll was less than 10 a day, we saw 700 people a day in early April. And now we compare with the average number of deaths without coronavirus (1,770 people). It turns out that 1,770 + 700 people die from coronavirus, or + 40% daily during the active phase of a pandemic. And this is official data that only considers death if the coronavirus has been confirmed. Indeed, there is more.

Official statistics on the number of coronavirus deaths in Italy

In his post, Lebedev offers another link to an online real-time death count in Italy. It's hard for me to say whether or not coronavirus death is included here, but if so, I can only be happy about Italy's healthcare because they show that 1,141 people have died today, assuming there are 525 today died of coronavirus. Overall, the mortality rate from COVID-19 is 46% of the total number of deaths per day. If these deaths are excluded, the number of deaths is 616, compared to 1,770 average deaths according to the 2019 statistics. Agree that the numbers don't seem so harmless now, do you?

And yes, if someone did not know why people are not buried and keep their bodies in ice stadiums, I answer – it is forbidden to bury people according to recognized traditions: it is also forbidden to collect more than two, even during a funeral. And the bodies are only handed over to relatives after a quarantine period of around two weeks. It is strange not to know this in the age of open source.

But that seemed a little to Lebedev. A day later, he published a new post trying to compare firearm mortality in the United States to coronavirus death. Here is this post:

Do we compare warm with soft?

This time I'm not going to describe the math in detail, I'm going to give the final numbers right away: In the United States, 110 people die from firearms every day, and about 1,000 people die from corona virus every day in the past few days. Does it still seem funny and hype, dear Artemy?

It's hard for me to say how people with millions of subscribers are led to publish such posts. You can argue with me and get to the bottom of such letters in such publications and say that formally everything is spelled correctly. Only you can see how impressed you are after reading these “statistics”. It seems that there is nothing to fear, you cannot take care of self-isolation, government and WHO recommendations, and bravely go to the park to fry kebabs because "many more people die from ARI than from coronavirus". There is only one limitation: such statistics show data for the year, and we only have three months of coronavirus deaths (and they're growing fast). It should also be borne in mind that each comparison must take into account that the number of deaths from coronavirus is summed up with other deaths per day and does not replace them.

Well, generally speaking, I won't say anything about the fact that many just don't know how to use a calculator and common sense.

The number of deaths by country for April 5, 2020:

Spain: 836 + 694 from corona virus

France: 1 691 + 518 from coronavirus

Great Britain: 1,272 + 621 from corona virus

USA: 5,772 + 1,165 from coronavirus

Still not scared?

Stay home and stay healthy!