How many people in the world would have been infected with CoVID-19 without quarantine?


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I don't know anything about you, but some of my friends still contest the seriousness of the CoVID-19 distribution. Also, it seems to me more and more that people have decided to arrange something like mass walks – the weather is nice outside, why not go outside without a mask and other personal protective equipment? The answer to the question is obvious: if self-isolation and social distance are not taken into account, the number of people infected with the new coronavirus will increase exponentially. By April 7, the death toll from SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus had exceeded 75,000 people worldwide. As horrible as these numbers may be, it could have been much worse. According to scientists, up to 240,000 people may die in the U.S. by the end of April. Self-isolation and quarantine measures are taken into account. But what would happen without them?

Temporary help centers infected with corona virus in Central Park, New York

Worst case scenario for the CoVID 19 pandemic

Indeed – and we have already written about it – leading epidemiologists have long warned that the world cannot avoid a new pandemic of a dangerous disease. Epidemiologist Larry Brilliant, who helped overcome smallpox, Ebola and other equally dangerous diseases, predicted the truly catastrophic consequences of a pandemic of a new viral disease in 2006. In addition, epidemiologists' fears were so serious that, with the help of scientists, the film “Infection” was released on screens in 2011 to attract public and government attention. But even the star cast did not draw attention to the problem. Read more about what this film is about and why it is worth watching it in our material.

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But what would happen if the governments of different countries did not take decisive action after the discovery of a new corona virus? Imperial College London scientists presented the first global assessment of the effects of the coronavirus on March 26th. According to the results, without quarantine and self-isolation, CoVID-19 would be infected by around 7 billion people in 2020 alone – and this is almost 90% of the world's population. Given the number of people infected, about 40 million people would die. It is also important to understand that not a single health system in the world can cope with this situation.

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Monitor your health carefully. Unfortunately, the threat cannot be underestimated.

The only thing that can be done to prevent disaster is to implement strategies that aim to greatly reduce the rapid growth of new infections. This means that people should minimize contacts and change their usual way of life. Despite such "draconian" measures, the situation in each country can develop differently depending on the demographic situation and income levels, the authors of the study write. This means that in some countries a pandemic can develop differently and in some countries the losses can be terrible. At the same time, delays in implementing strict measures (quarantine, self-isolation) can endanger millions of lives. Aren't you still scared?

Global threat

After analyzing the severity of the disease and how people interacted with each other, the scientists predicted the further development of the pandemic and its impact on 202 countries. The results of the study are further evidence that every effort must be made to slow the spread of the disease and reduce mortality among the population. The analysis found that the introduction of social distance to mitigate the effects of the outbreak halved the number of suspected deaths.

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In other words, if 40% of the population maintain social distance and self-isolation, this will reduce the number of deaths worldwide by around 20 million in 2020.

However, the hospitals will continue to be overcrowded with patients. This is exactly what is happening in New York, Italy and Spain. According to Science News, it is very difficult to make accurate predictions because we currently know too little about the new corona virus. However, other experts say that if the virus spreads, it will have a major impact on countries around the world and inevitably lead to the death of many people.

If you stay at home, you will save the lives of others. do not forget it

Do you observe self-isolation and how do you assess the situation with the spread of the coronavirus in your hometown? Share your answer in the comments to this article and discuss this and other topics in our telegram chat

How can I now resist the corona virus?

Regardless of how different the assessments of experts are, everyone agrees: You have to act early if the number of deaths in the population is still relatively low. COVID 19 deaths can help officials better understand the spread of the disease and determine when to instruct residents to limit contact with other people and stay at home. In the event that the world's leaders actively suppress the spread of CoVID-19 from the time of the first case identified on the line, approximately 30.7 million lives will be saved. Delays in the implementation of strategies to suppress the transmission of infections, on the other hand, will lead to an increase in the death toll.

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I would like to remind you that young people are also not immune to the serious course of the disease and death from strangulation. According to a recent report by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), people between the ages of 20 and 44 are also hospitalized with severe cases of CoVID-19. A similar situation can be observed in our country, and a 16-year-old girl recently died in France.

Let's not forget that the new corona virus is not seasonal flu, it's much, much more dangerous. Recently, Hi-News.ru editor-in-chief Renat Grishin wrote a wonderful article on how to deny the dangers of a pandemic and manipulate statistics – be sure to read it and make it a habit to check information. Without exaggeration, today not only your life, but also other people's lives depend on it. Health.