Last week, a traditional annual event took place in London, at which CCS Insight presented its predictions for the development of technology and society for the next 10 years. You can find different abstract assumptions in this list, but there are also specific predictions. There were 90 of them, but we will talk about the 14 most interesting and promising ones for us. At the same time, we will find out what kind of company it is and why analysts generally have predictions about our future.
1 What is CCS Insight?
2 Apple Privacy
3 Check the status of the smartphone
4 When 5G starts working
5 mass face recognition system
6 fight against fake videos
7 5G Networks from Amazon
8 New Netflix series
9 Automatic system for remedying infringements
10 Samsung Galaxy glasses
11 employees test
12 A new type of portable device
13 When do the home robots appear?
14 brain-computer interface
15 Virtual reality in the fight against the environment
16 10-year forecast
What is CCS Insight?
CCS Insight is an English forecasting and analysis organization. It includes specialists who have worked with equipment for a long time. The CCS Insight website even documents that they have carefully selected their specialists and have all worked in technology-related areas for at least 15 years.
For example, some CCS Insight forecasts are publicly available in this article, while another section is for specific requests from business people, investors, and others who need to know how this or that direction will evolve.
Can you imagine? The scientists first kept the brain tissue alive for several weeks
Every year, CCS Insight attends a conference where renowned analysts share their thoughts on the topic of the near future. In addition to company representatives, many well-known representatives of business and technology companies participated in the conference, for example:
Cristiano Amon (President of Qualcomm) Stefan Streit (Marketing Director of TCL) Olaf Swonti (CEO of Sunrise) Daniel Rausch (Vice President of Smart Home, Amazon)
Below are examples of what might change in the future, with a brief description of the pros and cons of such changes.
In 2020, Apple will launch its Apple Privacy brand.
Benefits: As always, the benefits of all of Apple's innovations come to the fore for a while. If the technology really works, we can talk about improving safety. Apple is the company with the best specialists in the world, who rarely make mistakes. There were cases of iCloud data leakage, but the accounts were not protected by two-factor authentication. Otherwise, Apple may be trusted for security reasons.
Disadvantages: The only downside is that Apple will have even more influence on the market. However, these disadvantages can easily translate into benefits if other market players catch up and competition breaks out.
Who benefits: It benefits everyone, because safety is never superfluous. Only those who want to exploit the weak points and can not, will not be happy about it, because they are closed.
Check the smartphone status
In 2020, at least five operators will offer subscribers an annual "health check" on the smartphone.
Benefits: According to studies, users have recently switched to updating the smartphone every three years. This is due to higher prices for flagships and a slowdown in technology development. The emergence of a large number of service centers will simplify minor repairs. For example, battery replacement. Even Apple has decided to expand its authorized service center network after all third-party services that request it have been certified.
Disadvantages: On the one hand, the emergence of a large number of services leads to competition and lower prices, on the other hand, changing their status to "official" services leads to more expensive services. The second will definitely be a minus.
Who benefits: It benefits above all the users. Despite the price increase, they get easier access to high-quality repairs for smartphones. As a result, they do not have to change an expensive device often.
When does 5G start working?
The appearance of a large number of smartphones with 5G support in 2020 in the market will lead to a fall in prices.
Advantages: The benefits of a price reduction are obvious – the price will be lower. That's bad and the good news is that the advent of a large number of devices supporting fifth-generation networks will increase infrastructure. The situation can become avalanche-like. Buy users Smartphones – operators build networks – users buy even more smartphones – operators build even more networks … and so on.
Disadvantages: It is difficult to find disadvantages in this development. In addition, old devices will not stop functioning, despite the development of new technologies, because they are compatible with new networks and simply unable to reach their full potential.
For whom it is beneficial: consumers will be back in the black, but operators with manufacturers will not be in the loss. The former will receive more traffic, and the latter will increase sales of various devices such as portable routers and smart home devices.
Mass Facial Recognition System
In 2021, a reliable detection system will emerge among the mass of potential attackers.
Benefits: Quantitative detection systems already exist and even know how predictions can be made on the basis of artificial intelligence. But they are often mistaken. It turns out that each person can be "pulled out" of the crowd for review. As a result, he comes too late for a train or an airplane or just loses a lot of time. With a system that is not mistaken, such situations are almost eliminated.
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Disadvantages: Disadvantages in such a system will be difficult to find. Especially if it works properly.
For those who benefit, law enforcement agencies can make investigations and prevention much easier. As a result, ordinary people should benefit from improved safety. If everything works as planned and there are no abuses, many of which speak, the professionals are just that.
Fight fake videos
In 2021, a fake video detection system will be released.
Benefits: The way artificial intelligence and other video processing tools can move from one person to another is simply scary. To fight such videos, Google wants to create a special tool until 2021. There is no need to talk about individual benefits. For honest people, such counterfeiting systems are generally a solid plus.
Disadvantages: If you do not want to deceive anyone, there are no disadvantages with such a counterfeiting device. In fact, false records can be used not only for jokes or rallies, but also to slander a person and even make false accusations of crime.
For who it is profitable: A tool to combat counterfeit videos is beneficial for anyone who may suffer. And of course Google itself. If it overstrains this task, it increases its authority considerably.
5G networks from Amazon
In 2021, Amazon will acquire the exclusive right to use 5G networks in at least one country.
Advantages: In a monopoly you rarely find many advantages.
Disadvantages: Amazon is a cool company, but it's good when there's competition. If there is no competition in the communications market, the quality of communication is not the best.
For whom it is beneficial: First of all, it is beneficial for Amazon itself that receives the entire cream from the market. Everyone will want 5G. Even if the quality is not the best, Amazon will still be a plus.
New Netflix series
In 2022, Netflix will have to look for new ways to move forward, as the public will stop growing.
Advantages: Maybe some interesting new features will be invented or only some of the old ones will be worked out, but the content will not get any worse.
Disadvantages: Disadvantages in this situation can only be for the company as it has to invest in something new. There are no more disadvantages.
Who Benefits: This benefits simple consumers who are receiving new content or even more competing with other services. There Apple TV + is already a bit stronger. In general, it will be interesting.
Automatic system to remedy violations
In 2022, artificial intelligence will be able to replace the live judges at major sporting events.
Advantages: Theoretically, the likelihood of errors decreases, especially when living persons review the decisions taken by the computer.
Disadvantages: Disadvantages come from the pros. Now the referee mistakes are unpleasant, but sometimes they add very interesting elements to the game. For example, a randomly scored additional goal makes the game much more interesting. If these mistakes do not exist, the human factor is left behind, which sometimes has to be in every business.
For whom it is profitable: First, it is beneficial for bookmakers, if it is not unusual. You can accept bets without needing to adjust for random events. Second, strong athletes will benefit as it becomes more difficult to convict them by mistake or "almost accidentally".
Samsung Galaxy glasses
In the year 2022, Samsung will release Galaxy Glasses.
Benefits: At a time when many VR (Virtual Reality) developed, Tim Cook said he believes more in AR (Augmented Reality). After a few years, Apple began to demonstrate that these were not just words. As a result, it turned out that she was a locomotive again. Before that, there were developments in the AR sphere, but now she has gained the extent of hysteria. Everyone wants AR. The plus is that the technology is practical if it is not misused and becomes even more prevalent with the advent of new devices.
Disadvantages: The human brain is not yet ready to see something that is not there. You go with glasses, you see an advertisement, but it is not. So you can confuse real objects with fictitious objects. Such experiments were and their results make you think.
For whom it is beneficial: If Apple does not have time to publish its solution, it is advantageous for Samsung. If the market has already formed, it will be hard for the company, but we will benefit from the competition – the normal consumer.
By 2023, psychometric testing by developers will be the order of the day. This is especially true for software developers.
Benefits: Employers get more productive employees who can achieve great results. All this will lead to improved products and shorter deadlines for their preparation for publication.
Disadvantages: It is not a fact that testing takes into account all the characteristics of the employee's personality. It may happen that a small feature of the psyche does not alienate the farsighted employer, but it makes the person a genius. It is too dangerous to try to bring such a comprehensive concept as a person to a common standard.
Who benefits: If the system works flawlessly, it is especially beneficial for employers and good employees. The only question is what not so good people should do. Will they ever lose a chance? Maybe yes
A new type of portable device
By 2023, portable device manufacturers will be forced to pay users for their data due to the lack of differences in the records.
Benefits: Because the development of portable electronics sooner or later hangs on the ceiling and not all usage scenarios can be calculated in the lab, the evolution based on user data is an important step forward. This makes devices better and more stable.
Disadvantages: Manufacturers already have access to some user data. Right now they are impersonal and too messy. If you gain access to and pay for certain users, it will most likely affect your production costs. However, it is unlikely that the price increase will be so significant.
Who benefits: We will be consumers again. Improving the quality of a product benefits us first and foremost.
When will home robots appear?
By the year 2025, every fiftieth house in industrialized countries will have a home robot.
Advantages: A home robot is good. And even better, the technology will make it almost universally available.
Disadvantages: The main thing is that home robots really help. Personally, I doubt that in 6 years' time it will be possible to improve the technology of their production to become truly irreplaceable assistants. And another question: Are robots, for example vacuum cleaners, considered as robots? Already they are in at least fifty houses.
For whom is it an advantage: the emergence of a new type of device is less favorable to the consumer than the competition in the market for existing and almost irreplaceable devices, such as smartphones. It turns out that robots are first and foremost profitable for manufacturers who will finally start harvesting from their long-term investments.
Brain Computer Interface
By 2027, the brain-computer interface will shift from medical to commercial.
Advantages: Such a proliferation of technologies will lead to the emergence of new devices and devices. This may be helpful in particular when communicating with the robots from the previous paragraph. In addition, the expansion of technology will allow people with disabilities to use these interfaces, which will complete their lives.
Disadvantages: The main drawback will again be too fast misunderstanding of the future. How much our brain will be ready for such innovations. If this works well and does no harm, this phenomenon will have no disadvantages.
For whom it is an advantage: The introduction of such a method for communication with a computer is advantageous for manufacturers of devices that can significantly expand their functionality. It can also strengthen people with disabilities.
Virtual reality in the fight against ecology
By 2029, the development of virtual reality and concern for the environment will reduce the number of business travel by 20 percent.
Benefits: Since analysts make such a forecast after weighing all the factors, it means we get two benefits at once. First, humanity will be more concerned about the environment, and second, virtual reality technologies will reach a new level in those 10 years.
Disadvantages: The development of instant messaging, telephony and other means of communication has already led us to almost not meet, but rather to communicate remotely. The emergence of virtual reality becomes another pebble in the garden, finally closing at home. As a result, we will communicate with the world about virtual reality, with the robot through the brain interface, and order food remotely. Not so good a view.
Who benefits from that? Do not talk about sad things. Technology development benefits everyone. Like the fight for the environment. We all live in this world and we have no other.
In addition to the specific forecasts for the next decade mentioned above, more general questions were discussed at the conference. For example, they talked a lot about the huge burden of the global economy. This affects all countries, not just developed or developing.
It was also talked about technological nationalism. Experts called such strange conceptual situations when national governments use large technology companies as an instrument of their policies. As an example, China and Huawei were named.
In general, it was found that technology companies generated a profit of $ 1 trillion in 2010 and a profit of $ 1.7 trillion in 2019. This suggests that such companies are gaining weight and reaffirming the technological capabilities of our time.
The importance of the fight for the environment has been singled out especially against the background of the growth of such companies and the transition to even greater energy consumption, which somehow needs to be dismantled. Even a simple transition to 5G networks requires significantly higher energy costs. Therefore, we need to think about how we can gain energy without affecting the "shaken health" of our planet.